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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still